Bay Area Housing Market Update, November 2026: Rates, Prices and Inventory in Five Counties

12 hours ago

4 min read

Hello, Bay Area neighbors. Every week I talk with buyers and sellers across the Bay Area who ask the same question: what is the market actually doing right now? For early November 2026 the honest answer is a mixed picture. Mortgage rates have eased from their October peak but are still well above where they were a year ago, sales are a little slower than last year, and prices are holding up because there still are not many homes for sale. Here are the latest published numbers, with sources, so you can see what I am seeing.

San Francisco skyline at golden hour, including Salesforce Tower

Where mortgage rates stand

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on November 5, 2026. That is down from 7.24% the week before and the third weekly decline in a row. A year ago the same survey showed 6.22%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%. (Freddie Mac news release, Freddie Mac rate survey)

The St. Louis Fed's FRED data for the same survey shows 7.40% on October 8 and October 15, so rates have come down about 0.22 percentage points since mid-October. That survey covers conventional, conforming loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit, so your own quote can be different.

Looking ahead, a November 9 Marketplace report quotes Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance predicting that rates will bounce around between 7% and 7.25% over the next month or two. Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said, "I'm not holding my breath for mortgage rates to come down, I don't think any seller or buyer should be waiting for that to happen."

What California's latest sales report says

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) released its September report on October 19. Statewide, the median price for an existing single-family home was $899,720, down 0.2% from August and up 1.7% from a year earlier. Sales ran at an annualized pace of 260,410, down 6.5% from September 2025, and C.A.R. said higher borrowing costs and affordability challenges weighed on buyer demand. (C.A.R. September report)

For the San Francisco Bay Area region as a whole, the same report shows:

A median price of $1,325,000, up 1.9% from September 2025.
Home sales down 3.1% from a year earlier.
An Unsold Inventory Index of 2.6 months, compared with 2.8 months a year earlier. That index estimates how many months it would take to sell the homes on the market at the current sales pace.
A median time on market of 19 days, compared with 24 days a year earlier.

A county-by-county snapshot

These are September 2026 figures for existing single-family detached homes in the five counties I serve, from the same C.A.R. report. A median means half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

San Francisco: median $2,054,000, 1.6 months of inventory, 21 median days on market.
San Mateo: median $2,327,500, 2.0 months of inventory, 11 days.
Santa Clara: median $1,920,000, 2.1 months of inventory, 11 days.
Alameda: median $1,265,000, 2.2 months of inventory, 13 days.
Contra Costa: median $870,000, 2.7 months of inventory, 19 days.

C.A.R. also notes that county medians can move with the mix of homes that sold in a given month, so I look at trends over several months rather than any single number. One more detail from the report: active listings in Santa Clara County were up 26.4% from a year earlier, among the largest increases in the state.

Why supply is still tight

C.A.R. says the "lock-in effect" is still keeping many owners from listing, because they would give up a lower mortgage rate. On the new-construction side, the National Association of Home Builders told Marketplace that builder sentiment is at its lowest level since June 2012. Fewer homes coming to market is one reason prices have been steadier than sales.

What I take from the numbers

Buyers may have a bit more time. C.A.R.'s president said the market "feels a little less rushed," and well-prepared buyers may have more room to explore and negotiate. Being pre-approved and clear on your budget is what lets you use that time well.
Rates move week to week. Know what your monthly payment would be at a few different rates, and talk to more than one lender.
Sellers should price to today's market. With inventory only slightly above last year's level statewide (up 0.5%, according to C.A.R.), well-priced homes still get attention, but buyers are no longer rushing.

This is general market information, not financial or investment advice, and every home and neighborhood is different. If you would like numbers for a specific city, home type or price range, I am glad to pull them for you. I also share weekly market videos on my YouTube channel.